Assessment of Future Meteorological Drought Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5) Scenario: Case Study of Iraq

Abstract

Iraq is one of the countries in the Middle East that suffers from frequent droughts due to severe weather fluctuations. This study analyzed the precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations located in different climatic regions of Iraq for 50 years (1968-2017) to calculate the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Future precipitation projected for 2020-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 using CCSM4 climate model for RCP 8.5 scenario was also used for meteorological drought projections. The results showed that the SPI for 1968-2017 near-normal (0.99 to -0.99), with the percentage of dry years being 49\%. Samawa and Karbala recorded positive SPI values 0.012 and 0.0067, respectively), and Mosul noticed the highest negative SPI (-0.33) for RCP 8.5 in the (mid-21th century, 2041-2060. For 2081-2100, the highest positive SPIs recorded in the northern and western regions, including Kirkuk, Baiji, and Rutba (0.91, 0.893, and 0.857, respectively). In comparison, the highest negative SPIs were recorded in Amara and Baghdad (-0.872, -0.807, respectively). The results confirmed that southern and central Iraq would be most affected by drought in the future. The above results can help policymakers assess future drought risks in Iraq. It may also help to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to combat climate change.